An innovative approach to post-crash credit portfolio
management

Credit portfolio managers traditionally rely on fundamental
research for decisions on issuer selection and sector rotation.
Quantitative researchers tend to use more mathematical techniques
for pricing models and to quantify credit risk and relative value.
The information found here bridges these two approaches. In an
intuitive and readable style, this book illustrates how
quantitative techniques can help address specific questions facing
today's credit managers and risk analysts.

A targeted volume in the area of credit, this reliable resource
contains some of the most recent and original research in this
field, which addresses among other things important questions
raised by the credit crisis of 2008-2009. Divided into two
comprehensive parts, Quantitative Credit Portfolio
Management offers essential insights into understanding the
risks of corporate bonds--spread, liquidity, and Treasury
yield curve risk--as well as managing corporate bond
portfolios.

* Presents comprehensive coverage of everything from duration
time spread and liquidity cost scores to capturing the credit
spread premium

* Written by the number one ranked quantitative research group
for four consecutive years by Institutional Investor

* Provides practical answers to difficult question, including:
What diversification guidelines should you adopt to protect
portfolios from issuer-specific risk? Are you well-advised to sell
securities downgraded below investment grade?

Credit portfolio management continues to evolve, but with this
book as your guide, you can gain a solid understanding of how to
manage complex portfolios under dynamic events.

ARIK BEN DOR, PHD, is a Director and Senior Analyst in the Quantitative Portfolio Strategy (QPS) Group at Barclays Capital Research. He joined the group in 2004 after completing a PhD in finance from the Kellogg School of Management. Ben Dor has published extensively in the Journal of Portfolio Management, Journal of Fixed Income, and Journal of Alternative Investments.

LEV DYNKIN, PHD, is the founder and Global Head of the Quantitative Portfolio Strategy Group at Barclays Capital Research. Dynkin and the QPS group joined Barclays Capital in 2008 from Lehman Brothers where the group was a part of fixed income research since 1987—one of the longest tenures for an investor-focused research group on Wall Street.

JAY HYMAN, PHD, is a Managing Director in the Quantitative Portfolio Strategy Group at Barclays Capital Research. He joined the group in 1991 and has since worked on issues of risk budgeting, cost of investment constraints, improved measures of risk sensitivities, and optimal risk diversification for portfolios spanning all fixed income asset classes. Hyman helped develop a number of innovative measures that have been broadly adopted by portfolio managers and that have changed standard industry practice.

BRUCE D. PHELPS, PHD, is a Managing Director in the Quantitative Portfolio Strategy Group at Barclays Capital Research, which he joined in 2000. Prior to that, he was an institutional portfolio manager and head of fixed income at Ark Asset Management. Phelps was also senior economist at the Chicago Board of Trade, where he designed derivative contracts and electronic trading systems, and an international credit officer and foreign exchange trader at Wells Fargo Bank. Phelps is a member of the editorial board of the Financial Analysts Journal.

Zusammenfassung
An innovative approach to post-crash credit portfolio management

Credit portfolio managers traditionally rely on fundamental research for decisions on issuer selection and sector rotation. Quantitative researchers tend to use more mathematical techniques for pricing models and to quantify credit risk and relative value. The information found here bridges these two approaches. In an intuitive and readable style, this book illustrates how quantitative techniques can help address specific questions facing today's credit managers and risk analysts.

A targeted volume in the area of credit, this reliable resource contains some of the most recent and original research in this field, which addresses among other things important questions raised by the credit crisis of 2008-2009. Divided into two comprehensive parts, Quantitative Credit Portfolio Management offers essential insights into understanding the risks of corporate bondsspread, liquidity, and Treasury yield curve riskas well as managing corporate bond portfolios.

• Presents comprehensive coverage of everything from duration time spread and liquidity cost scores to capturing the credit spread premium
• Written by the number one ranked quantitative research group for four consecutive years by Institutional Investor
• Provides practical answers to difficult question, including: What diversification guidelines should you adopt to protect portfolios from issuer-specific risk? Are you well-advised to sell securities downgraded below investment grade?

Credit portfolio management continues to evolve, but with this book as your guide, you can gain a solid understanding of how to manage complex portfolios under dynamic events.

Foreword xvii

Introduction xix

Notes on Terminology xxvii

PART ONE Measuring the Market Risks of CorporateBonds

CHAPTER 1 Measuring Spread Sensitivity of Corporate Bonds3

Analysis of Corporate Bond Spread Behavior 5

A New Measure of Excess Return Volatility 20

Refinements and Further Tests 25

Summary and Implications for Portfolio Managers 30

Appendix: Data Description 34

CHAPTER 2 DTS for Credit Default Swaps 39

Estimation Methodology 40

Empirical Analysis of CDS Spreads 41

Appendix: Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Approach 51

CHAPTER 3 DTS for Sovereign Bonds 55

Spread Dynamics of Emerging Markets Debt 55

DTS for Developed Markets Sovereigns: The Case of EuroTreasuries 59

Managing Sovereign Risk Using DTS 66

CHAPTER 4 A Theoretical Basis for DTS 73

The Merton Model: A Zero-Coupon Bond 74

Dependence of Slope on Maturity 77

CHAPTER 5 Quantifying the Liquidity of Corporate Bonds81

Liquidity Cost Scores (LCS) for U.S. Credit Bonds 82

Liquidity Cost Scores: Methodology 88

LCS for Trader-Quoted Bonds 92

LCS for Non-Quoted Bonds: The LCS Model 96

Testing the LCS Model: Out-of-Sample Tests 102

LCS for Pan-European Credit Bonds 113

Using LCS in Portfolio Construction 123

Trade Efficiency Scores (TES) 129

CHAPTER 6 Joint Dynamics of Default and Liquidity Risk133

Spread Decomposition Methodology 138

What Drives OAS Differences across Bonds? 139

How Has the Composition of OAS Changed? 141

Spread Decomposition Using an Alternative Measure of ExpectedDefault Losses 145

High-Yield Spread Decomposition 147

Applications of Spread Decomposition 147

Alternative Spread Decomposition Models 150

Appendix 152

CHAPTER 7 Empirical versus Nominal Durations of CorporateBonds 157

Empirical Duration: Theory and Evidence 159

Segmentation in Credit Markets 173

Potential Stale Pricing and Its Effect on Hedge Ratios 173

Hedge Ratios Following Rating Changes: An Event Study Approach179

Using Empirical Duration in Portfolio Management Applications186

PART TWO Managing Corporate Bond Portfolios

CHAPTER 8 Hedging the Market Risk in Pairs Trades 197

Data and Hedging Simulatio…