How will the international environment change, and what will be the shape of U.S. security policies twenty years from today? Barry Blechman answers these questions by analyzing the many variables that will influence the international arena. Some factors-such as demographic trends--change slowly and can be forecast with confidence. Others depend mor

Barry M. Blechman is the founder and president of Defense Forecasts, Inc. He served as assistant director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency from 1977 to 1979 and has been affiliated with the Brookings Institution, the Carnegie Endowment, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Johns Hopkins University Foreign Policy Institute. He prepared this study as a consultant for the Institute for Defense Analyses.

Foreword -- Planning for the Year 2001 -- U.S. Capabilities and Constraints -- Regional Forecasts -- Alternative Composite Futures -- Conclusions -- Delphi Panels for Technological and Proliferation Forecasts -- Experts Interviewed for Regional Forecasts