Wireless Foresight deals with the development of the wireless communications industry and technology during the coming ten to fifteen years. Telecommunications is a global business of enormous proportions and is one of the largest industries in the world.
Written in a highly accessible and simple to read manner, this book is based around four scenarios of the wireless world in 2015. The focus is on the industry (i.e. infrastructure and terminal vendors, operators, and service developers and providers) as well as on new players.
- Discusses the long-term developments described in the four scenarios and also short term issues, for example the challenges facing industry.
- Uncovers important areas for technological research and discusses the critical challenges facing industry, for example; the high cost for infrastructure, the slow spectrum release, the stampeding system complexity, radiation, battery capacity, and the threat of a disruptive market change facing the telecommunications industry.
- Offers a global approach whereby developments from around the world are described.
- Employs the method of building full-scale scenarios as opposed to just identifying trends and making predictions.
Wireless Foresight is an invaluable and provocative read for top and middle management, strategists, business developers, technology managers, and entrepreneurs in the telecom, datacom and infocom industries alike. It is also of great interest to financial analysts and academics.
Autorentext
Bo Karlson is Wireless@KTH's director of external relations and general manager. He was the manager of the Wireless Foresight project. Karlson holds a Ph.D. in industrial management from the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH). Before joining Wireless@KTH, he was assistant professor in the Department for Industrial Economics and Management at KTH. His areas of expertise include project management. Organizational theory, business models, industrial development, and research methodology.
Aurelian Bria is currently pursuing a Ph.D. in the Department of Signals, Sensors and Systems at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Stockholm. He received his M.Sc. degree in electrical engineering from the Politehnica University of Bucharest, Romania, in 1989. In autumn 2000 he joined the Swedish strategic research program Personal computing and Communication (PCC), starting his research in the field of wireless infrastructure.
Peter Lönnquist holds an M.Sc. degree in psychology and in 2001 he became a Ph.D. student at the Swedish Graduate School for Human-Machine Interaction. Formerly a member of the Human-Computer Interaction and Language Engineering Laboratory at the Swedish Institute of Computer Science (SICS), he now does research in the design and evaluation of ubiquitous service environments and "the disappearing computer" in the FUSE group at the Department of Computer and Systems Sciences of the IT-University in Kista.
Cristian Norlin holds an M.A. in interaction design from the Royal College of Art in London. He also holds a B.Sc. in multimedia education and technology from Stockholm University. Based in Stockholm, he is working as a consultant focusing on human-computer interaction in areas of concept development, interface design for digital technologies and products, and user-centered development processes.
Jonas Lind is a researcher at the center for Information and Communications Research (CIC) at Stockholm School of Economics, where his research focus is structural changes during the life cycle of the IT and telecom industry. Before rejoining academia, he was a strategy consultant in an internet consulting firm and a senior advisor at Telia headquarters. Lind holds an M.Sc. in engineering and an Econ. Lic. Degree in business administration.
Inhalt
Preface xiii
1 Introduction 1
The Wireless Industry at a Crossroads 1
Be Prepared for 2015 4
Scenarios of the Wireless World in 2015 4
Challenges for the Future 6
Creating Scenarios 6
Guide to the Book 7
Part I Scenarios 9
2 Wireless Explosion-Creative Destruction 11
A Sunny Berlin Day in 2015 14
The Wireless Scene in 2015 16
Rapidly Growing Industry 16
Industry Fragmentation-Market Leaders Losing Hegemony 17
Debt-Burdened Operators Losing Market Dominance 18
Telco Equipment Vendors Lose to Datacom Attackers 19
Terminal Vendors Attacked from NICs and Datacom
Industry Vendors 20
Active Users Driving Development and Undermining Copyright 21
A Mobile Lifestyle with Increasing Travel 22
An Explosion of Services and Applications 22
Spectrum-Abundant Release for Unlicensed Bands 24
No Real Problems with Integrity, Privacy, and Security 24
Fast Development in China and Other NICs 25
Batteries and Complexity Management No Showstoppers 25
Wireless Technology in 2015 26
A World with Many Different Wireless Systems 26
An Abundance of Services with Various QoS 28
Standardization Has Increased 28
3 Slow Motion 29
Ordinary Life in Stockholm and Business Life in Shanghai 32
A Day in the Life of an Ordinary Swede 32
A Business Day of a Mobile Professional in 2015 33
The Wireless Scene in 2015 35
Economic Recession and 3G Fiasco 35
Health Problems from Radiation 36
Security a Problem Still Waiting to Be Solved 37
The Mobile Lifestyle Loses Ground 38
No Service Explosion 39
Wireless Telecommunication Is a Mature Industry 40
The Big NICs Catching up after a Slow Start 42
Spectrum Shortage Not a Big Problem 43
Power Consumption and Complexity Management as Technical Limitations 44
Wireless Technology in 2015 45
Still Mostly Second-Generation Wireless Networks 45
Simple and Low-Radiating Terminals 46
Few and Basic Services 47
4 Rediscovering Harmony 49
A Weekday Morning in a Small Scandinavian Village 52
The Wireless Scene in 2015 54
A Sustainable Society in Balance with Itself 54
The Backlash for Marketing and Commercial Media 56
Market Segments Driving the Development 57
Less but More Travel 59
A Few Clouds in the Sky 60
The Industry Dilemma: Refocus or Die! 60
Peer-to-Peer Applications and Services a Hit 62
Content IPR Still Unresolved 64
Wireless Technology in 2015 64
Many Local and Few Global Wireless Systems 64
Simple Services 65
Standards 65
5 Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments 67
Early April Morning, Green Haven Gated Community, New York, US 70
The Wireless Scene in 2015 73
Moguls and Governments 73
Security Problems of the 2000s Solved 74
Moguls in Control 76
Slow Development in the NICs 77
Incumbent Telecom Players Keep Control of the Market 77
3G According to Plan 80
Applications and Services Focus on Convenience for the User 80
No Free Airwaves 81
Somewhat of a Complex World 81
Wireless Technology in 2015 82
Few Different Systems 82
Global Networks 82
Wireless and Wired Terminals 83
Quality of Service 83
Few Services but Sophisticated and Popular Services 83
Part II Drivers of Development and Technological Implications 85
6 Trends and Fundamental Drivers 87
Fourteen Trends Shaping the Scenarios 88
Scenario Abbreviations 88
Trend 1: Development Will Be More User Driven 88
Trend 2: User Mobility Will Increase 89
Trend 3: The Service and Application Market Will Grow 90
Trend 4: User Security, Integ…