Forecasting in Business and Economics presents a variety of forecasting techniques and problems. This book discusses the importance of the selection of a relevant information set.
Organized into 12 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the forecasting techniques that are useful in decision making. This text then discusses the difficulties in interpreting an apparent trend and discusses its implications. Other chapters consider how a time series is analyzed and forecast by discussing the methods by which a series can be generated. This book discusses as well the views of most academic time series analysts regarding the usefulness of searches for cycles in most economic and business series. The final chapter deals with the techniques developed for forecasting.
This book is a valuable resource for senior undergraduates in business, economics, commerce, and management. Graduate students in operations research and production engineering will also find this book extremely useful.
Inhalt
Preface
Chapter 1 Basic Concepts of Forecasting
1.1 A Scenario
1.2 Some Forecasting Situations
1.3 Types of Forecasts
1.4 Information Sets and Cost Functions
1.5 A Note on Notation
Questions
Chapter 2 Trend-Line Fitting and Forecasting
2.1 Introducing Trends
2.2 Choosing and Estimating a Curve
2.3 Forecasting Using Trend Curves
2.4 Trend Removed by Differencing
2.5 Irregularly Recorded Data
Questions
Further Readings
Chapter 3 Forecasting from Time Series Models
3.1 White Noise
3.2 Moving Averages
3.3 Autoregressive Models
3.4 Mixed Autoregressive-Moving Average Models
3.5 Stationarity and Invertibility
3.6 The Correlogram and Partial Correlogram
3.7 The Box-Jenkins Approach to Model Building
3.8 Numerical Examples
Questions
Further Readings
Chapter 4 Further Aspects of Time Series Forecasting
4.1 Cycles and the Seasonal Component
4.2 Low-Cost Time Series Forecasting Methods
4.3 Which Method to Use
4.4 Properties of Optimum Forecasts
4.5 Numerical Examples of Seasonal Series
Questions
Further Readings
Chapter 5 Regression Methods and Econometric Models
5.1 Relating Variables
5.2 Causal Models: An Example
5.3 Causal Models: The General Case
5.4 Some Practical Problems
5.5 Econometric Models
5.6 An Actual Econometric Model
Questions
Further Readings
Chapter 6 Survey Data: Anticipations and Expectations
6.1 Overview of the Use of Survey Data
6.2 Anticipation Data
6.3 Expectations and Attitudes
6.4 Survey of Forecasters
Questions
Further Readings
Chapter 7 Leading Indicators
7.1 Swings in the Economy
7.2 The Search for Indicators
7.3 Evaluation of Indicators
7.4 The 1974-1975 Depression
Questions
Further Readings
Chapter 8 Evaluation and Combination of Forecasts
8.1 Evaluating an Individual Forecasting Method
8.2 Evaluating a Group of Forecasting Methods
8.3 The Combination of Forecasts
8.4 How Well Do the Methods Work?
Questions
Further Readings
Chapter 9 Population Forecasting
9.1 Stating the Problem
9.2 Population Extrapolation
9.3 Birth-Rate Forecasting
Questions
Further Reading
Chapter 10 Technological Forecasting
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Growth Curve
10.3 The Delphi Method
10.4 Other Techniques
10.5 Examples of Scenarios
Appendix : Some Probable and Possible Scientific Innovations
Questions
Further Readings
Chapter 11 World Models
11.1 Introducing World Models
11.2 Evaluation
11.3 Food for a Doubling World Population
Further Readings
Chapter 12 Techniques Old and New
12.1 Forecasts from the Past
12.2 Choosing Methods
12.3 The Management of Forecasts
Questions
Further Readings
Index