Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists

The leading resource in the statistical evaluation and interpretation of forensic evidence

The third edition of Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists is fully updated to provide the latest research and developments in the use of statistical techniques to evaluate and interpret evidence. Courts are increasingly aware of the importance of proper evidence assessment when there is an element of uncertainty. Because of the increasing availability of data, the role of statistical and probabilistic reasoning is gaining a higher profile in criminal cases. That's why lawyers, forensic scientists, graduate students, and researchers will find this book an essential resource, one which explores how forensic evidence can be evaluated and interpreted statistically. It's written as an accessible source of information for all those with an interest in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic scientific evidence.

* Discusses the entire chain of reasoning-from evidence pre-assessment to court presentation;

* Includes material for the understanding of evidence interpretation for single and multiple trace evidence;

* Provides real examples and data for improved understanding.

Since the first edition of this book was published in 1995, this respected series has remained a leading resource in the statistical evaluation of forensic evidence. It shares knowledge from authors in the fields of statistics and forensic science who are international experts in the area of evidence evaluation and interpretation. This book helps people to deal with uncertainty related to scientific evidence and propositions. It introduces a method of reasoning that shows how to update beliefs coherently and to act rationally. In this edition, readers can find new information on the topics of elicitation, subjective probabilities, decision analysis, and cognitive bias, all discussed in a Bayesian framework.

COLIN G. AITKEN, School of Mathematics, University of Edinburgh, UK

FRANCO TARONI, School of Criminal Justice, University of Lausanne, Switzerland

SILVIA BOZZA, Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Italy and School of Criminal Justice, University of Lausanne, Switzerland

Klappentext

The leading resource in the statistical evaluation and interpretation of forensic evidence

The third edition of Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists is fully updated to provide the latest research and developments in the use of statistical techniques to evaluate and interpret evidence. Courts are increasingly aware of the importance of proper evidence assessment when there is an element of uncertainty. Because of the increasing availability of data, the role of statistical and probabilistic reasoning is gaining a higher profile in criminal cases. That's why lawyers, forensic scientists, graduate students, and researchers will find this book an essential resource, one which explores how forensic evidence can be evaluated and interpreted statistically. It's written as an accessible source of information for all those with an interest in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic scientific evidence.

• Discusses the entire chain of reasoningfrom evidence pre-assessment to court presentation;
• Includes material for the understanding of evidence interpretation for single and multiple trace evidence;
• Provides real examples and data for improved understanding.

Since the first edition of this book was published in 1995, this respected series has remained a leading resource in the statistical evaluation of forensic evidence. It shares knowledge from authors in the fields of statistics and forensic science who are international experts in the area of evidence evaluation and interpretation. This book helps people to deal with uncertainty related to scientific evidence and propositions. It introduces a method of reasoning that shows how to update beliefs coherently and to act rationally. In this edition, readers can find new information on the topics of elicitation, subjective probabilities, decision analysis, and cognitive bias, all discussed in a Bayesian framework.

Zusammenfassung
Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists

The leading resource in the statistical evaluation and interpretation of forensic evidence

The third edition of Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists is fully updated to provide the latest research and developments in the use of statistical techniques to evaluate and interpret evidence. Courts are increasingly aware of the importance of proper evidence assessment when there is an element of uncertainty. Because of the increasing availability of data, the role of statistical and probabilistic reasoning is gaining a higher profile in criminal cases. That's why lawyers, forensic scientists, graduate students, and researchers will find this book an essential resource, one which explores how forensic evidence can be evaluated and interpreted statistically. It's written as an accessible source of information for all those with an interest in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic scientific evidence.

• Discusses the entire chain of reasoningfrom evidence pre-assessment to court presentation;
• Includes material for the understanding of evidence interpretation for single and multiple trace evidence;
• Provides real examples and data for improved understanding.

Since the first edition of this book was published in 1995, this respected series has remained a leading resource in the statistical evaluation of forensic evidence. It shares knowledge from authors in the fields of statistics and forensic science who are international experts in the area of evidence evaluation and interpretation. This book helps people to deal with uncertainty related to scientific evidence and propositions. It introduces a method of reasoning that shows how to update beliefs coherently and to act rationally. In this edition, readers can find new information on the topics of elicitation, subjective probabilities, decision analysis, and cognitive bias, all discussed in a Bayesian framework.

Inhalt

Foreword iii

Preface to first edition v

Preface to second edition ix

Preface to third edition xiii

1 Uncertainty in forensic science 1

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Statistics and the law 2

1.3 Uncertainty in scientific evidence 5

1.3.1 The frequentist method 7

1.3.2 Stains of body fluids 9

1.3.3 Glass fragments 10

1.4 Terminology 14

1.5 Types of data 16

1.6 Populations 17

1.7 Probability 19

1.7.1 Introduction 19

1.7.2 A standard for uncertainty 22

1.7.3 Events 26

1.7.4 Classical and frequentist definitions of probability and their limitations 27

1.7.5 Subjective definition of probability 28

1.7.6 The quantification of probability through a betting scheme 30

1.7.7 Probabilities and frequencies: the role of exchangeability 32

1.7.8 Laws of probability 37

1.7.9 Dependent events and background information 38

1.7.10 Law of total probability 43

1.7.11 Updating of probabilities 45

2 The evaluation of evidence 49

2.1 Odds 49

2.1.1 Complementary events 49

2.1.2 Examples 50

2.1.3 Definition of odds 51

2.2 Bayes' Theorem 53

2.2.1 Statement of the theorem 53

2.2.2 Examples 53

2.3 The odds form of Bayes' Theorem 59

2.3.1 Likelihood ratio 59

2.3.2 Bayes' factor and likelihood ratio 61

2.3.3 Three-way tables …