Three primary factors will define post-2014 Afghanistan: security, governance and economic growth. Security is uncertain at best, notwithstanding the optimistic public projections of the U.S. military leaders. Reasonably, decent governance will depend on the security environment. Afghanistan has had a miserable record of governance with poor performance and rampant corruption. Similarly, economic growth will depend on the security environment and on governance performance.

Gerald F. Hyman is a senior adviser and president of the Hills Program on Governance at CSIS.