one-of-a-kind introduction to the theory and application of
modeling and simulation techniques in the realm of international
studies

Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events
provides an orientation to the theory and application of modeling
and simulation techniques in social science disciplines. This book
guides readers in developing quantitative and numeric
representations of real-world events based on qualitative analysis.
With an emphasis on gathering and mapping empirical data, the
authors detail the steps needed for accurately analyzing global
events and outline the selection and construction of the best model
for understanding the event s data.

Providing a theoretical foundation while also illustrating
modern examples, the book contains three parts:

* Advancing Global Studies--introduces the what,
when, and why of modeling and simulation and also explores its
brief history, various uses, and some of the advantages and
disadvantages of modeling and simulation in problem solving. In
addition, the differences in qualitative and quantitative research
methods, mapping data, and conducting model validation are also
discussed.

* Modeling Paradigms--examines various methods of
modeling including system dynamics, agent-based modeling, social
network modeling, and game theory. This section also explores the
theory and construction of these modeling paradigms, the
fundamentals for their application, and various contexts for their
use.

* Modeling Global Events--applies the modeling
paradigms to four real-world events that are representative of
several fundamental areas of social science studies: internal
commotion within an anarchic state, a multi-layered study of the
Solidarity movement in Poland, uni-lateral military intervention,
and the issue of compellence and deterrence during a national
security crisis.

Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events is an
excellent book for statistics, engineering, computer science,
economics, and social sciences courses on modeling and simulation
at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an
insightful reference for professionals who would like to develop
modeling and simulation skills for analyzing and communicating
human behavior observed in real-world events and complex global
case studies.

JOHN A. SOKOLOWSKI, PhD, is Research Professor and Director of Research at the Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center at Old Dominion University. He has written numerous journal articles on the use of modeling and simulation techniques in the fields of engineering, computer science, and human behavior representation. Dr. Sokolowski is the coeditor of Principles of Modeling and Simulation: A Multidisciplinary Approach, also published by Wiley.

CATHERINE M. BANKS, PhD, is Research Assistant Professor at the Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center at Old Dominion University. She currently focuses her research on modeling states and their varied histories of revolution and insurgency; political economy and state volatility; and climate change and population dynamics. Dr. Banks is the coeditor of Principles of Modeling and Simulation: A Multidisciplinary Approach, also published by Wiley.

Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events provides an orientation to the theory and application of modeling and simulation techniques in social science disciplines. This book guides readers in developing quantitative and numeric representations of real-world events based on qualitative analysis. With an emphasis on gathering and mapping empirical data, the authors detail the steps needed for accurately analyzing global events and outline the selection and construction of the best model for understanding the event's data.

Providing a theoretical foundation while also illustrating modern examples, the book contains three parts:

• Advancing Global Studiesintroduces the what, when, and why of modeling and simulation and also explores its brief history, various uses, and some of the advantages and disadvantages of modeling and simulation in problem solving. In addition, the differences in qualitative and quantitative research methods, mapping data, and conducting model validation are also discussed.
• Modeling Paradigmsexamines various methods of modeling including system dynamics, agent-based modeling, social network modeling, and game theory. This section also explores the theory and construction of these modeling paradigms, the fundamentals for their application, and various contexts for their use.
• Modeling Global Eventsapplies the modeling paradigms to four real-world events that are representative of several fundamental areas of social science studies: internal commotion within an anarchic state, a multi-layered study of the Solidarity movement in Poland, uni-lateral military intervention, and the issue of compellence and deterrence during a national security crisis.

Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events is an excellent book for statistics, engineering, computer science, economics, and social sciences courses on modeling and simulation at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an insightful reference for professionals who would like to develop modeling and simulation skills for analyzing and communicating human behavior observed in real-world events and complex global case studies.

Preface xi

I PRINCIPLES OF MODELING AND SIMULATION: ADVANCING GLOBAL STUDIES 1

1 Modeling and Simulation: What, When, and Why 3
Introduction 3
An Overview of Modeling and Simulation 4
A Brief History of Modeling and Simulation 8
Why Use Modeling and Simulation 16
Conclusions 20
Key Terms 21
References 21
Further Reading 22

2 Research Methodologies for Modeling Global Events 23
Introduction 23
Global Events and the Social Sciences 25
Qualitative and Quantitative Research 28
Modeling and Simulation of Global Events 32
Mapping Data: A Suggested Methodology 36
Model Validation 39
Conclusions 40
Key Terms 41
References 41

II MODELING PARADIGMS 43

3 System Dynamics 45
Introduction 45
Dynamic System Behavior 46
Building Blocks of System Dynamics Models 51
Conclusions 61
Key Terms 61
References 61

4 Agent-Based Modeling and Social Networks 63
Introduction 63
Agent-Based Models: Description and Definition 64
Social Networks 76
Building an Agent-Based Model 77
Conclusions 78
Key Terms 78
References 79

5 Game Theory 81
Introduction 81
Fundamentals of Game Theory 81
Types of Games 86
Conclusions 95
Key Terms 95
References 96

III MODELING GLOBAL EVENTS 97

6 Case Study: Colombia-A Country Study of Insurgency 99
Introduction 99
Developing the Research Question and Methodology 101
Background: Qualitative Research 102
Mapping Qualitative to Quantitative 108
System Dynamics 115
Responding to the Research Question 117
Key Terms 120
References 120
Case Study Bibliography 120

7 Case Study: The Polish Solidarity Movement-Laying the Foundation for the Collapse of Soviet Communism 123
Introduction 123
Developing the Research Question and Methodology 125
Background: Qualitative Research 126
Measuring Agents and En…