Futures for a Declining City: Simulations for the Cleveland Area discusses the processes associated with decrease in urban population or "urban decline and other measures of urban size or function.
This book describes the case study that analyzes what will happen to a declining metropolitan area and its central city if current trends on urban decline continue, and how that outcome might be affected by various policies designed to counteract further loss. This case study focuses on the Cleveland Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) and its central city, Cleveland. The likely future course of urban decline acquired through quantitative estimates and methodologies for comparing policies is also covered in this text.
This publication is aimed primarily at economists, urban planners, and political scientists, including those who formulate policies affecting declining urban areas.
Inhalt
Preface
1. Introduction and Summary
The Nature of This Study
The Key Urban Variables Used
The Specific Policy Packages Analyzed
Findings Concerning the Continuation of Present Trends (The Base Case)
Findings Concerning Alternative Futures for the Cleveland SMSA
Findings Concerning City Revitalization Policies in General
2. Continuation of Present Trends and Policies - The Base Case
Concept
Employment, Population, and Income
Housing and Household Developments
Fiscal Factors
Transportation
3. The Analysis of Future Policy Changes
Introduction
Impacts on Location of Employers
Impacts on Location of Households
Secondary Impacts
Fiscal Impacts
Transportation Impacts
4. A Job Stimulus Package
Concept
Policies
Results
Two Variants: Income Transfers and Jobs Targeted to City Residents
5. A Housing Rehabilitation Package
Concept
Policies
Impacts
Housing Tables
Other Changes from the Base Case
Implications
6. A Transit Improvement Package
Concept
Policies
Methodology
Results
In-City Variant
Conclusions
7. A Fiscal Equalization Package
Concept
Policies and Immediate Fiscal Effects
Location Response to Fiscal Equalization
Additional Fiscal Effects
Summary
8. A Suburban Growth Control Package
Concept
Policies
Impacts
Housing Tables
Other Changes from the Base Case
Implications
9. The Impact of an All-Out Revitalization Strategy and Comparisons among the Policy Packages
The All-Out Revitalization Package and Its Impacts
Comparison and Interpretation of Policy Packages
Sensitivity to Secondary Effects Assumptions
10. Energy Scarcity Scenarios
Adjustment Mechanisms
High-Cost Scenario
Severe Shortage Scenario
Conclusion
11. Recommendations
Appendix A. Computation of Secondary Effects and Transportation Variables
Appendix B. Detailed Projections and Results
Appendix C. Acronyms
Index