This book helps managers move beyond the idea that the future of business will resemble the past and allows them to use scenarios to imagine multiple perspectives. The concepts of organizational realities, experience, and beliefs are explored to encourage and embrace change in business organizations for a successful future.
Autorentext
Kees van der Heijden (Scotland) is Director of the Centre for Scenario Planning and Future Studies, the Graduate School of Business at the University of Strathclyde, U.K.
The Centre for Scenario Planning and Future Studies
Members of the Centre for Scenario Planning and Future Studies of the University of Strathclyde Graduate School of Business (USGSB) have been involved in scenario and futures work over a significant period of time, both in a consultant and an educational capacity. This combination has resulted in the development of expertise in scenario planning and future studies that is difficult to match. The Centre's expertise is demonstrated in the range of scenario planning and future studies assignments that have been undertaken for major organizations, as well as in the production of leading edge research and publication about scenario planning and future studies, and decision-making. This combination differentiates the Centre from other organizations in the field.
The Centre has developed an international reputation for the design and delivery of purposeful scenario planning assignments. These have involved private sector organizations from a wide range of industry groupings on an international basis, and public sector organizations from local to national governments. The internal scenario teams drawn from all these organizations has included key decision and policy makers, resulting in top-level commitment to participation and active adaptive learning from the outcomes.
Klappentext
Survival means creating value for stakeholders, and the survival problem starts with uncertainty, change and the need for organizations to adapt to shifting needs and market conditions. The key question is 'Why are organizations slow to change and adapt?'
Unsuccessful organizations are distinguished by their failure to overcome thinking and behavioural flaws at personal, organizational and community levels. In this book, we explain what these flaws are and how the scenario approach helps senior managers and organizations to overcome them. Our approach is based on reasoning, research, real world observations - and a long track record developing scenario-based thinking, combining the most effective elements of the many scenario approaches that have been tried over time.
This book explains:
- Why scenario thinking is increasingly important: how it has developed as an approach that can help build successful strategies and organizations.
- How scenarios are valuable in overcoming an obstacle or problem - current or potential - by enabling innovation and creative thinking 'outside the box'.
- How scenario thinking can be used to resolve organizational flaws by enhancing the strategic conversation.
- How to understand the scenario approach in the context of effective organizational learning and development.
- How to ensure that scenario thinking is included in a wider strategic and organizational learning framework, essential for organizational survival.
Outlining the benefits and techniques of scenario thinking The Sixth Sense shows that scenario thinking is purposeful and effective in driving strategy and organizational development towards managerial and organizational success.
The Centre for Scenario Planning and Future Studies
Members of the Centre for Scenario Planning and Future Studies of the University of Strathclyde Graduate School of Business (USGSB) have been involved in scenario and futures work over a significant period of time, both in a consultant and an educational capacity. This combination has resulted in the development of expertise in scenario planning and future studies that is difficult to match. The Centre's expertise is demonstrated in the range of scenario planning and future studies assignments that have been undertaken for major organizations, as well as in the production of leading edge research and publication about scenario planning and future studies, and decision-making. This combination differentiates the Centre from other organizations in the field.
The Centre has developed an international reputation for the design and delivery of purposeful scenario planning assignments. These have involved private sector organizations from a wide range of industry groupings on an international basis, and public sector organizations from local to national governments. The internal scenario teams drawn from all these organizations has included key decision and policy makers, resulting in top-level commitment to participation and active adaptive learning from the outcomes.
Inhalt
ABOUT THE AUTHORS x
INTRODUCTION 1
The Quest for a Clear Vision of the Future 1
Unknown Variables, Uncertain Future 1
The Significance of Scenario Thinking 2
Developing the Sixth Sense - the Approach to Scenario Thinking 5
How this Book is Organized 6
1. PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE 11
Understanding Organizational Success 12
Success and Failure are Inevitable 12
Understanding success by understanding failure 13
Explaining the Sharpbenders Research: Why Organizations Fail 14
Maintaining Organizational Performance: Problems 19
Sustaining Competitive Advantage - the Battle of Canon and Xerox 19
Yahoo! - Competing in Fast-moving Markets 23
Building a Colourful New Future Brick by Brick - the Story of Lego 26
Success Stories 28
Providing Customer Value - the Rise of Tetra Pak 28
Entering New Markets and Maintaining Growth - Nokia Answers the Call 32
Barriers to Strategic Success 34
Lessons Learned 34
Creating Value - The Difference Between Success and Failure 36
Value is Created in a Domain of Scarcity 37
Summary: Understanding the Barriers to Scenario Planning 37
2. HOW MANAGERS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE 41
Understanding Management Thinking 42
Routines in Management Thinking 43
Over-reliance on Routines: Success Formulas and Managerial Thinking 44
Biases in thinking 46
The Relevance of Framing Flaws 46
How a Failed Product Launch Actually Boosted Sales: the Sparkle of New Coke 47
Confirmation Bias 50
Hindsight Bias 51
The Problem of Overconfidence 52
The Limitations of Judgemental Forecasting 53
Decision Avoidance 54
Escalation of Commitment 54
Bolstering, Procrastination and Buck-Passing 57
Example of a Management Team Facing a Decision Dilemma 58
Thinking Flaws: A Synthesis 61
Overcoming Strategic Inertia: the Potential Benefits of Scenario Planning 63
A Scenario is not a Forecast of the Future 63
Scenarios Focus on Key Uncertainties and Certainties About the Future 63
Scenarios Help Identify Information to Anticipate How the Future will Unfold 64
Typical Outcomes of the Scenario Planning Process 65
Summary: Overcoming Thinking Flaws with Scenario Planning 65
Summary Checklist - the Limits to Managerial Thinking 65
3. HOW ORGANIZATIONS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE 69
Flaws in Organizational Thinking 70
Communication Difficulties 71
Group-think in Organizations 72
Fragmentation in Organizations 73
Limitations Imposed by Identity 75
Balancing Change and Constancy 75
Overcoming the Limits of Organizational Identity: the Example of IBM 77
Organizational Lock-…