This book presents an overview of the necessary information needed to make educational assumptions about the statistical or probable characteristics of a situation. The book can be used as a supplemental text in courses on probability, logic, statistics, judgement and decision making, history, and/or philosophy of science in departments of psychology, philosophy, mathematics, economics, and business.
Autorentext
Nickerson, Raymond S.
Zusammenfassung
Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naivete, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.
Inhalt
Contents: Foreword. Probability and Chance. Randomness. Coincidences. Inverse Probability. Some Instructive Problems. Paradoxes and Dilemmas. Statistics. Estimation and Prediction. Perception of Covariation. Choice Under Uncertainty. People as Intuitive Probabilists. Concluding Comments.
Titel
Cognition and Chance
Untertitel
The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning
Autor
EAN
9781135614621
ISBN
978-1-135-61462-1
Format
E-Book (pdf)
Hersteller
Herausgeber
Genre
Veröffentlichung
24.06.2004
Digitaler Kopierschutz
Adobe-DRM
Dateigrösse
2.72 MB
Anzahl Seiten
472
Jahr
2004
Untertitel
Englisch
Unerwartete Verzögerung
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