Recent advances in the study of complexity have given scientists profound new insights into how natural innovation occurs and how its power can be exploited. Now two pioneers in the field, Robert Axelrod and Michael D. Cohen, provide leaders in business and government with a guide to complexity that will help them make effective decisions in a world of rapid change.

Building on evolutionary biology, computer science, and social design, Axelrod and Cohen have constructed a unique framework for improving the way people work together. Their approach to management is based on the concept of the Complex Adaptive System, which can describe everything from rain forests to the human gene pool, and from automated software agents to multinational companies. The authors' framework reveals three qualities that all kinds of managers must cultivate in their organization:

• Variation What is the best way to manage the development of software? Should the problem be broken up into small pieces for programmers working independently, thus enhancing variation, or should there be a centralized hierarchy of programmers ruled by a chain of command? The authors show how the decentralized creation of variation combined with the centralized maintenance of standards was the key to the success of the Linux "open source software" project, which brought together thousands of volunteers in cyberspace to produce an operating system that can outperform Microsoft's.

• Interaction Why did northern Italy prosper while southern Italy remained poor? Recognizing the internal interactions of a Complex Adaptive System -- be it a national region, a company, or a nonprofit group -- reveals vital networks of trust. Axelrod and Cohen explain that in successful adaptive systems, rich networks of horizontal linkages foster cooperation and provide an advantage over other less cooperatively networked groups. In the case of Italy, voluntary associations created networks of trust in the Middle Ages that became northern Italy's critical advantage over the south.

• Selection Is a Pulitzer Prize better than a National Book Award? How can foundations and corporations design competitions that have a positive effect on the evolution of excellence? The authors' framework makes clear that the worst selection processes are mired in orthodox standards that have not adapted to a new environment. The best selection processes, on the other hand, are created and run by leaders who understand how the standards they use can transform their organization and its environment.

This simple, paradigm-shifting analysis of how people work together will transform the way we think about getting things done in a group. Harnessing Complexity is the essential guide to creating wealth, power, and knowledge in the 21st century.

Robert Axelrod is Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the University of Michigan. The author of The Evolution of Cooperation. He lives in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Preface

I. Introduction

Introduction to the Framework

The Difficulty of Prediction

Complexity Research

The Design of Organizations and Strategies

The Information Revolution

Complexity and Information

Adaptation and Information

Complexity as a Way of Thinking

II. Variation

The Role of Variation

Altering the Frequency of Types

Copying With Error

Endogenous Copying Mechanisms

Recombining Mechanisms

Exploration Versus Exploitation

Example: Military Personnel Systems

Whether to Encourage Variety

Example: Linux Software Development

Extinction -- The Vanishing of Types

III. Interaction

The Importance of Interaction

Example: Social Capital

How Interaction Works

Proximity and Activation

Spaces: Physical and Conceptual

Example: Combating the AIDS Virus, Part 1

External Methods of Changing Interaction Patterns

Barriers to Movement in Time and Physical Space

Barriers to Movement in Conceptual Spaces

Semi-permeable Barriers

Example: Combating the AIDS Virus, Part 2

Activation in Sequence or in Parallel

Internal Methods of Changing Interaction Patterns

Following Another Agent

Following a Signal

Example: Tags in the Prisoner's Dilemma

Forming Boundaries

Separating Time Scales

Redistributing Stress

Example: Modes of Failure in Information Systems

Organizing Routines

Restructuring of Physical and Conceptual Spaces

IV. Selection

Defining Criteria of Success

Example: Prize Competitions

Determining the Level of Selection

Selection of Agents

Selection of Strategies

Attributing Credit for Success and Failure

Example: Military Simulation

Creating New Agents or Strategies

The Key Role of Copying

Detailed Differences Among Generic Copying Processes

Exercising Visible Leadership

V. Conclusion

The Central Elements of the Framework

How the Elements Form a Coherent Framework

What a User of the Framework Asks

What a User of the Framework Can Do

What May Come of This Approach

References

Index