All the tools needed to perform a thorough risk assessment--whether you're working in insurance, forensics, engineering, or public safety Risk analysis is the method of analyzing the dangers to individuals, businesses, and government agencies posed by potential natural and man-made hazards. The central task of the risk assessor is predicting the success of a project. This includes isolating the entire spectrum of adverse events that can derail a project or threaten the health and safety of individuals, organizations, and the environment. Designed as a practical, in-the-field toolkit, Risk Assessment details every aspect of how a risk assessment is performed, showing the proper tool to be used at various steps in the process, as well as locating the tool that best fits the risk assessment task at hand. Examining not only the very nature of risks and consequences, with fascinating historical examples, the book progresses from simple to more complex risk assessment techniques used by the authors in their daily work, all presented in a form that can be readily adapted to any number of real-life situations: * Ecological Risk Assessment * Task Analysis Techniques * Preliminary Hazards Analysis * Failure Mode and Effects Analysis * Human Reliability Analysis * Critical Incident Technique * Event Tree and Decision Tree Analysis * Basic Fault Tree Analysis Technique * Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) * Vulnerability Analysis Technique * Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods Used in Risk Assessment With numerous industry-specific case studies, as well as additional case studies for risk assessments for a restaurant and a process plant, the book provides readers with complete examples of how each of the techniques can be used in a variety of real-world situations. Including downloadable worksheets and other useful assessment materials, as well as guidance on using PRA software, this unparalleled reference offers all the tools and techniques needed to conduct a thorough and accurate assessment of risk.
Autorentext
LEE T. OSTROM, PHD, has worked in the fields of risk assessment, industrial safety, ergonomics, and human factors for over thirty years. A Certified Professional Ergonomist and Certified Safety Professional, he has been an assistant professor and degree coordinator for the industrial technology degree program at the University of Idaho. He is the author of Creating the Ergonomically Sound Workplace.
CHERYL A. WILHELMSEN is an assistant professor at APUS/AMU and consults with NASA Ames in the area of aviation inspection. In her thirty year career, she has conducted hundreds of ergonomic assessments and risk assessments from offices to nuclear hot cells. She has a master's of science in industrial technology from the University of Idaho and is currently a PhD.ABD.
Klappentext
All the tools needed to perform a thorough risk assessmentwhether you're working in insurance, forensics, engineering, or public safety
Risk analysis is the method of analyzing the dangers to individuals, businesses, and government agencies posed by potential natural and man-made hazards. The central task of the risk assessor is predicting the success of a project. This includes isolating the entire spectrum of adverse events that can derail a project or threaten the health and safety of individuals, organizations, and the environment.
Designed as a practical, in-the-field toolkit, Risk Assessment details every aspect of how a risk assessment is performed, showing the proper tool to be used at various steps in the process, as well as locating the tool that best fits the risk assessment task at hand. Examining not only the very nature of risks and consequences, with fascinating historical examples, the book progresses from simple to more complex risk assessment techniques used by the authors in their daily work, all presented in a form that can be readily adapted to any number of real-life situations:
- Ecological Risk Assessment
- Task Analysis Techniques
- Preliminary Hazards Analysis
- Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
- Human Reliability Analysis
- Critical Incident Technique
- Event Tree and Decision Tree Analysis
- Basic Fault Tree Analysis Technique
- Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)
- Vulnerability Analysis Technique
- Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods Used in Risk Assessment
With numerous industry-specific case studies, as well as additional case studies for risk assessments for a restaurant and a process plant, the book provides readers with complete examples of how each of the techniques can be used in a variety of real-world situations. Including downloadable worksheets and other useful assessment materials, as well as guidance on using PRA software, this unparalleled reference offers all the tools and techniques needed to conduct a thorough and accurate assessment of risk.
Inhalt
List of Figures xiii
List of Tables xvii
Acknowledgments xxi
1 Introduction to Risk Assessment 1
1.1 Terminology, 6
1.2 Performing Risk Assessments, 6
1.3 Risk Assessment Team, 7
1.3.1 Team Approach, 7
1.3.2 Team Representatives, 10
References, 11
2 Risk Perception 13
2.1 Knowledge Level, 15
References, 20
3 Risks and Consequences 21
3.1 Introduction, 21
3.2 Risk and Consequence, 21
3.3 Credible Consequences, 24
3.4 Summary, 25
References, 25
4 Ecological Risk Assessment 26
4.1 Introduction, 26
4.2 Deep Water Horizon, 29
4.3 Love Canal, 34
4.4 Minimata Methylmercury, 36
4.5 Agent Orange, 38
4.6 Seveso, Italy, 40
4.7 Risk of Ecological Disasters, 41
4.8 Ecological Risk Assessment, 41
4.8.1 Example Ecological Risk Assessment, 45
4.9 Summary, 53
References, 54
5 Task Analysis Techniques 56
5.1 What is Task Analysis? 56
5.2 Why a Task Analysis? 57
5.3 When to use Task Analysis? 58
5.4 Task Analysis Process, 58
Step 1: Data Collection Information, 59
Step 2: Recording the Data, 60
Step 3: Data Analysis, 63
References, 63
6 Preliminary Hazards Analysis 64
6.1 Description, 65
6.1.1 Process of Preliminary Hazards Analysis, 66
6.1.2 Hazard Class, 69
6.1.3 Examples of Hazardous Energy Sources, 69
6.2 Using Process Hazard for Procedure Design, 72
6.2.1 Purpose of Process, 72
6.2.2 Initial Basic Procedure Steps, 72
6.2.3 Analysis, 73
6.2.4 Using the Results of the Analysis, 73
6.3 Using PHA for Preliminary Product Design, 75
Step 1: Determine Functions of the Crib, 76
Step 2: Determine Required/Critical Specifications, 76
Step 3: Determine Major Systems/Subsystems of the Crib, 76
Step 4: Determine Important Components of Each System/Subsystem, 77
Step 5: Determine Operating Modes of the Crib, 77
6.4 Summary, 79
References, 79
7 Primer on Probability and Statistics 81
7.1 Introduction, 81
7.2 Probability Theory, 85
7.3 Combining Probabilities, 87
7.4 Conditional Probability, 88
7.5 Probability Distributions, 89
7.6 Using Probability, 92
7.7 Summary, 95
References, 96
8 Developing Probabilities 97
8.1 Risk Assessment Data, 97
8.1.1 Introduction, 97
8.1.2 Hardware Failure Rate Data, 97
8.1.3 Manufacture, 98
8.1.4 Historical Data, 98
8.1.5 Government and Military Handbooks, 98
8.1.6 Commercial Data Sources, 98
8.1.7 Operational Data and Testing, 99
8.1.8 Failure Rate Calculations, 100…